The Shifting Security Architecture of the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific has become the world’s central theatre for strategic competition, marked by shifting alliances, rapid military modernization, and heightened geopolitical tension. The traditional hub-and-spokes security system is gradually giving way to a networked architecture of overlapping minilaterals, strategic partnerships, and defence arrangements that reflect the region's new multipolar reality.

The rise of AUKUS has significantly altered regional defence dynamics, introducing advanced submarine capabilities and deepening technological cooperation across cyber, AI, and quantum systems. Meanwhile, the Quad continues to evolve beyond earlier perceptions, emerging as a platform for maritime security, infrastructure development, and strategic coordination, even without a formal military role.

ASEAN, though still central in diplomatic processes, faces challenges in responding cohesively to major-power competition. Divergent national interests limit collective security action, creating openings for external strategic initiatives. Meanwhile, smaller states increasingly engage in “multi-vector” diplomacy—seeking security cooperation with multiple powers while avoiding alignment.

China’s assertive posture in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and the Indian Ocean compels regional actors to strengthen deterrence, diversify defence partnerships, and invest in domain awareness. India’s growing role, marked by naval modernization and multilateral engagements, is reshaping maritime security and the balance of influence across the Indian Ocean.

This evolving architecture introduces both opportunities and risks. On one hand, greater cooperation increases resilience and interoperability. On the other, intensifying rivalries heighten the risk of incidents, escalation, and institutional fragmentation. Navigating this fluid landscape requires both strategic patience and adaptive diplomatic frameworks.

Key Findings:

• Indo-Pacific security is shifting from a hub-and-spokes model to a networked architecture of overlapping partnerships.

• AUKUS advances high-end deterrence capabilities and technological collaboration.

• The Quad functions as a flexible strategic platform rather than a military alliance.

• ASEAN faces internal challenges limiting collective security action.

• India's maritime role continues to expand as a stabilizing force in the Indian Ocean.

Policy Implications:

• States must strengthen crisis communication channels to mitigate escalation risks.

• India should deepen naval partnerships and expand maritime domain awareness efforts.

• ASEAN must address internal divergences to sustain regional centrality.

• Minilateral cooperation will continue to shape the Indo-Pacific’s balance of power.